Camelot should you back him at 4/6? Alternate Epsom Derby Tip

NEWMARKET, ENGLAND - MAY 05: Joseph O'Brien riding Camelot (R) punches the air after winning The Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes from French Fifteen (L) at Newmarket racecourse on May 05, 2012 in Newmarket, England. (Photo by Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images)
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According to the legendary jockey Lester Piggott, a Camelot victory in Saturday's Derby at Epsom is virtually inevitable, and bookmakers are in agreement with no bigger than 4/6 on offer.

Piggott, winner of a record nine Derbys and the last jockey to ride a horse to Triple Crown success, suggested this week that the odds-on favourite merely needs to show up at Epsom to win and put himself in line for the St Leger in September, saying: "It's all over isn't it, he's only got to steer. There've been better Derbys I think, but with a bit of luck he should win easily." And he should know a Derby winner when he sees one!

So, is there any point in looking anywhere else for the winner? Probably not and here are five compelling reasons why the Aidan O'Brien-trained colt can justify his current odds:

  • He's the best horse in the race and that's official. A visually impressive winner of last season's Racing Post Trophy, he went into the winter as Derby favourite, and his performance in winning the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket (despite the conditions) has earned him a rating of 121, which is two clear of his closest rival Bonfire
  • There are no apparent quirks and his laid back demeanour will stand him on good stead for the hustle and bustle of Derby day, when 100,000 people will be enjoying the occasion.
  • He's bred to win a Derby. Being by Montjeu, he should excel over middle distances and the fact he won the Guineas over a mile - his sire's first European Group 1 over that distance aged three or older - marks him out as exceptional.
  • Sticky ground conditions at Newmarket made it hard for horses to come from behind so the way he scythed through the pack from near last to first suggests he's out of the top drawer. Faster ground at Epsom will suit him much better.
  • There is likely to be plenty more improvement to come as he would not have been cherry ripe at Newmarket. Two years ago, his stablemate St Nicholas Abbey flopped in the Guineas after a "rushed" preparation - something that ruined his three-year-old career - and O'Brien would have been keen not to make the same mistake twice. He will have trained the colt to peak here.

And just for the contrarians out there, here are five reasons why he won't win the Derby:

  • He will be ridden by the trainer's son Joseph who at this time last year had never ridden at Epsom, let alone the Derby. It was his inexperience that nearly cost the horse victory in the 2000 Guineas and such exaggerated waiting tactics in the Derby could spell defeat. And let's face it, he wouldn't be the first apparent good thing to come unstuck on account of jockey error.
  • The Epsom's cambers have found many a good horse out over the years and there's no way of telling whether he will act around the course until the race itself.
  • Bonfire looks a formidable opponent after his victory in last month's Dante Stakes and that race has been a significant trial with four winners in the past eight years going on to land the Derby. Camelot's stablemate Astrology, the winner of the Dee Stakes, and the Lingfield Derby Trial winner Main Sequence have to be respected too.
  • He only scraped home in the Guineas and put up a terrible time figure in the process. Surely, a really top class horse should have been able to run faster than Camelot did at Newmarket.
  • The Guineas form has not worked at all and time may tell that he beat a poor lot at Newmarket.

Verdict:
Camelot looks to have everything in his favour and providing his young pilot can get the tactics right, he should win. At just 4/6, though, he's not a betting proposition and ASTROLOGY, an 8/1 shot with Paddy Power, is suggested for those of you looking for an each-way alternative to the favourite.

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Camelot should you back him at 4/6? Alternate Epsom Derby Tip

According to the legendary jockey Lester Piggott, a Camelot victory in Saturday's Derby at Epsom is virtually inevitable, and bookmakers are in agreement with no bigger than 4/6 on offer.

Read more »

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