Richard Moore takes a look at Saturday's Group One Coronation Cup and picks out his best bet in the highlight.
) looks a good bet in the Queen Elizabeth II Coronation Cup at Epsom on Saturday.
The race revolves around Postponed, the 4/7 favourite now trained by Roger Varian. When this horse was under the care of Luca Cumani last season, he won the King George at Ascot, proving himself a high class Group One performer. This season though he looks to have improved again on that form, with an impressive win in the Dubai Sheema Classic at Meydan to show for his switch to the Varian yard.
For all that he looked one of the best horses in the world that night in Dubai, on closer inspection the form might not stack up quite as well as it looked on the day. He beat two Japanese horses into second and third that day (Duramente and Last Impact), and holes can be picked in the form. Duramente was found to have pulled off a shoe during the race, and Last Impact (for all that he is consistent in good races) has not won a race since 2014. That said, if he has improved as much as appears from last season to this, then he will be extremely hard to beat on Saturday.
Postponed wins the Sheema Classic
Found was beaten last time out by an under-rated horse in Fascinating Rock at the Curragh in the Tattersalls Gold Cup on unsuitably soft ground. I wouldn’t have any concerns about her reappearing here so quickly, as her Breeders’ Cup success last October was actually her third run in just under four weeks (all in Group One company, in three different countries). That day she beat the magnificent Golden Horn in the Breeders’ Cup Turf over a mile and a half, and appeared well suited by the faster surface. Her hold up style of running means that she is always going to need some breaks to go her way, but I think that there will be a couple of pacemakers in the race for Postponed, so a strong gallop looks assured. The Breeders’ Cup form looks the single strongest piece on offer here, and the discrepancy in the odds of Postponed and Found means that the value is obvious to see.
Found winning at the Breeders' Cup.
Outside of the front two, it is hard to make a case for many of the others. Simple Verse won the St Leger last season at Doncaster after a controversial ruling in the steward’s room, and may find the front two a bit too hot to handle on all known form back at the mile and a half trip. Arabian Queen managed a 50/1 victory over Golden Horn last year at York, but has failed to run to that level before or since. The Luca Cumani trained Second Step has come in for market support in recent times, but needs to find plenty of improvement on what he has shown in his career to date to threaten the principles. His connections mean he deserves respect however, as Cumani is not known for tilting at windmills on a regular basis. Stepping back in distance will suit him and he could outrun his huge odds.
That said, at the prices Found looks the best value in the race.