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How to pick The Derby Winner?23rd June 2010
Want to pick a sure-fire Derby winner? Then choose a horse that is short in the odds, is Irish bred, has been ridden by one jockey only, has won at least twice as a 2-year old – and pay no attention to breeding.
That’s the recipe for success according to researchers Dr David Marlin, Jane Williams and Dr Tim Parkin who carried out a study to predict as closely as possible which horse would romp to victory in the 231st Epsom Derby run on the 5th June.
Marlin, Williams and Parkin used epidemiological (study of disease) techniques normally used to predict injury and illness risks to come up with their winning formula – the first time these techniques have been used in this way.
The results revealed that horses that started the race as favourite were 4.8 times more likely to win than those that did not. For each extra win the horse had notched up as a two-year old the likelihood of winning the Epsom Derby increased by 1.5 times. Horses that were foaled in Ireland were 2.8 times more likely to win the race than horses foaled elsewhere. Horses that had only ever been ridden by one jockey throughout their career were 2.5 times more likely to win the race than horses ridden by multiple jockeys.
In a startling conclusion for breeders everywhere, Marlin, Williams and Parkin concluded that: "breeding was not found to be significantly associated with the likelihood of winning the Epsom Derby."
The authors promise that their findings do improve the odds of choosing a winner and "represent a significant improvement on the approximately 6% chance of picking a winner at random." However, one should remember that nothing in life is ever certain!
The trio, specialists in exercise, disease and health, examined data on all 344 horses competing in the last 22 Derbies between 1988 and 2009, paying particular attention to the winners. Information was collected from The Racing Post website, trainer and stud websites and the wide range of data collected included: sire, dam, and ‘grand-parents’; date and location of foaling; date and age at first race; racing career performance preceding the Derby; number of jockeys in career; number and type of trainers in career - even the distance travelled to Epsom!
The factor of being foaled in Ireland could relate to early management of the foal and yearling in terms of nutrition or exercise, and they suggest that "this opens up an interesting area for future research that has not really been investigated to any great extent."
The single jockey factor they feel demonstrates that a jockey who has ridden a horse in all its career races would have a better rapport with the horse and therefore be able to calm and control a difficult or anxious animal and so put in a superior performance as well as knowing what the horse is truly capable of.
So which horse or horses for the 2010 Derby answered all of Marlin, Williams and Parkin’s criteria? Although the model did not predict that Workforce would win, it did show that At First Sight, who many believed to be simply a pacemaker, but finished 2nd, was severely underrated at odds of 150-1!.
Dr Marlin said: "This really is a unique study and probably the first of its kind, but almost certainly I suspect not the last! The main reason for conducting the study was to show the potential of using epidemiological techniques for applications outside the standard healthcare field, in fact in any circumstance where you have large amounts of data and potentially complex or confounding relationships."
Racegoers study the form at the 2010 Derby