Race Preview 2011
Aiden O’Brien and Sir Michael Stoute are undoubtedly two of the finest trainers of potential Classic winning colts that the sport has ever seen, and these two great masters of their art look set to go head to head again in this year’s Derby.
This year, not only does Stoute have the pressure of training the ante post favourite, Carlton House, he also has the opportunity of bringing success to one of the bloodstock industry’s most important figures, the Queen, over fifty years after she first attempted to win the world’s most important flat race.
And Carlton House certainly has a favourite’s chance after a very encouraging victory in the Dante at York last time out. What was so impressive about his performance that day was the way he quickened clear inside the furlong and put the race to bed in a matter of strides, without his jockey needing to resort to the whip.
The win also proved he is versatile ground wise and his connections reported after the race that they expect him to come on a good deal for the run as he had took time to come to himself after the winter.
He couldn’t be in better hands and Stoute seems to talk about him with an even greater air of confidence than he displayed this time last year when discussing 2010 winner, Workforce.
Aiden O’Brien’s Seville chased Carlton House home in at York. The messy early pace that day almost certainly didn’t suit the Coolmore three year old, who was also runner up (to Casamento, with Native Khan fourth) in the Racing Post Trophy last season.
His pedigree is all stamina and O’Brien is sure to utilise pacemakers on Derby day to ensure he gets the strong early gallop he clearly needs. If the race turns into a slog, there is a chance that he could outstay the Queen’s runner.
Recital is the other main hope from O’Brien’s yard and he won another major trial for this race, the Derrinstown Stakes at Leopardstown in May.
Certain commentators were worried about the way he hung in the closing stages that day – a problem which, if repeated here, will be exaggerated by the extreme camber up the Epsom straight – but jockey Kieren Fallon was certainly impressed, so much so that he has apparently reneged on a long standing arrangement to ride Native Khan in order to be reunited with Recital here. Again, his stamina should not be an issue.
Other O’Brien entries Memphis Tennessee and Treasure Beach may be used as pacemakers, but both have plenty of ability in their own right. Memphis Tennessee wasn’t beaten far by Recital at Leopardstown and, being lightly raced, has plenty of improvement in him, whilst Treasure Beach has a fair bit more experience to draw on here, including a win last time out in the Chester Vase, where Nathaniel chased him home.
Nathaniel’s trainer, John Gosden, probably has an even better chance in this race with his other entry, Masked Marvel, who won the Cocked Hat Stakes last time out. That was by far his best effort to date and he seems to possess a nice combination of speed and stamina.
The other home trained challengers to consider are Native Khan and Ocean War. Native Khan will represent this season’s 2,000 Guineas form, but it is a worry that Kieren Fallon has chosen to desert him.
He was one of the best juveniles around last season and his breeding suggests he should find further improvement over this longer trip. He needs quick ground to be at his best, though, as he has a decent turn of foot.
Ocean War is relatively unexposed and has yet to run in a race of anything like this quality. However, he has won his last two races easily and it would be dangerous to overlook him given his powerful connections.
France has not had a Derby winner since Empery in 1976 but will have two challengers here with Pour Moi and Vadamar both left in the field.
The two actually clashed last time out at Saint-cloud and whilst Vadamar went off a warm favourite, Pour Moi ran out a comfortable winner and, with both horses likely to be suited by the step up in distance, there is no obvious reason why the runner up should reverse that form here.
Godolphin duo Genius Beast and Casamento, as well as Roderic O’Connor, look set to bypass the race, whilst supporters of outsider Pisco Sour can cling to the fact that trainer Hughie Morrison says he is the best Derby contender he has ever trained. On the downside, though, is the fact that Pisco Sour is the only Derby runner he has trained!
In fairness to him, he wasn’t beaten that far in the Dante and he at least has more chance than Marhaba Malyoon and Castlemorris King, who look to be complete no hopers.